What this game teaches
The strategy in this game is genuinely profitable: with a 45% win rate and wins twice the size of losses, it earns 0.35 times the amount risked per trade on average. Over 100 trades it should grow the account. Yet players regularly blow up with it. The cause is never the strategy; it is the size of each bet.
A strategy that wins 45% of the time loses 55% of the time, and losses cluster. The table shows how likely long losing streaks are over 100 trades, and what they cost at two risk levels:
| Losing streak somewhere in 100 trades | Probability | Cost at 2% risk | Cost at 10% risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 or more | 99% | 7.8% | 34.4% |
| 6 or more | 73% | 11.4% | 46.9% |
| 8 or more | 31% | 14.9% | 57.0% |
| 10 or more | 10% | 18.3% | 65.1% |
At 2% per trade, even a 10-trade losing streak, which happens in a meaningful share of 100-trade runs, costs less than a fifth of the account. At 10%, a common 6-trade streak costs almost half, and you would need to nearly double what is left to recover.
The behaviour that blows accounts
- Raising size after losses to "win it back". This turns a normal drawdown into a fatal one.
- Raising size after wins because you feel sure. Confidence is not information; the next trade still loses 55% of the time.
- Judging the strategy by the last few trades. Ten trades tell you almost nothing about an edge.
The end-of-game comparison replays your exact sequence of wins and losses at fixed risk levels. Usually the steady 1% to 2% trader finishes calmly ahead, and the 10% to 20% trader has either soared or crashed, mostly crashed. Read the full maths in position sizing and risk of ruin.
Frequently asked questions
Is the game rigged?
No. Each game draws 100 independent trades in advance with a 45% chance of winning. Wins pay twice the risk. The comparison at the end uses the same sequence.
What is the best risk level?
For this strategy, the Kelly fraction (the growth-maximising bet) is 17.5% of capital per trade, but that produces huge swings. Traders who want to survive real-world uncertainty usually risk 0.5% to 2%.
Why is ₹50,000 the blow-up level?
A 50% loss needs a 100% gain to recover. In practice, most traders abandon their strategy or take wild risks long before that point, so it is a realistic line.
Related reading
- Position sizing and risk of ruin
- Position size calculator
- Risk of ruin simulator
- Drawdown recovery game
This game uses simulated prices and random outcomes for learning. It is not a trading platform, uses no real money and does not predict real markets. Everything runs in your browser; nothing you enter is sent to us. Read our disclaimer. Built and checked by Pradeep Rawal.