A ₹10,000 Monthly SIP in the NIFTY 50 from 2019 to 2026: What Really Happened
We replayed 93 monthly SIP instalments through the real NIFTY 50 path, including a 38% crash and a 2026 decline. The results are a useful corrective to calculators that assume a smooth 12% a year.
By Pradeep RawalNISM-certified (Series XV & VIII) · Updated · 5 min read
Key takeaways
- 93 monthly instalments of ₹10,000 (₹9,30,000) were worth ₹12,61,828 on 5 Oct 2026, an XIRR of 7.86% on the NIFTY 50 price index.
- That is below the 12% many calculators assume, because the index ended the period 14.3% below its January 2026 high. SIP results depend heavily on where the market is when you measure them.
- Across 57 rolling 3-year SIPs, the median XIRR was 13.4%, ranging from -3.3% to 23.7%.
- Pausing the SIP during the COVID months (April to December 2020) would have cut the final XIRR from 7.86% to 6.63%.
- Instalments made when India VIX was above 25 compounded at about 12.1% a year, versus 1.9% for instalments made when VIX was below 15.
SIP calculators show a smooth curve: put in ₹10,000 a month, assume 12% a year, and watch the money grow. Real markets do not move like that. To see what a SIP actually experiences, we took NSE's daily closing values of the NIFTY 50 from 1 Feb 2019 to 5 Oct 2026 and replayed a ₹10,000 investment on the first trading day of every month.
The period is a good test. It includes a pre-pandemic market, the fastest crash in modern Indian history, a strong two-year recovery, a long rise to a record high in January 2026 and a decline of more than 14% since.
The method
- Data: NIFTY 50 daily closing values (price index) from NSE, 93 months.
- Investment: ₹10,000 at the closing level on the first trading day of each month, 93 instalments in total.
- Valuation: all units valued at the NIFTY close of 5 Oct 2026 (22,555.75).
- Return measure: XIRR, the annualised return that accounts for the date of every instalment.
- Not included: dividends (the total return index would be higher by roughly 1% to 1.5% a year), fund expenses and taxes.
The headline result
An XIRR of 7.86% is respectable, but it is well below what the same SIP showed at the January 2026 peak. The ending point matters enormously. A lump sum invested on 1 Feb 2019 (NIFTY at 10,894) compounded at 9.95% a year to the same date, higher than the SIP, because the lump sum was invested before the post-2020 rally while many SIP instalments were made at much higher levels.
Year by year
| Year | NIFTY 50 at year end | Change in the year |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 12,168 | +11.7% |
| 2020 | 13,982 | +14.9% |
| 2021 | 17,354 | +24.1% |
| 2022 | 18,105 | +4.3% |
| 2023 | 21,731 | +20.0% |
| 2024 | 23,645 | +8.8% |
| 2025 | 26,130 | +10.5% |
| 2026 | 22,556 | -13.7% |
Seven of the eight periods were positive, but the yearly gains ranged widely, from small to over 20%, and the period ends with a sharp fall in 2026. A SIP experiences all of this, in order.
The COVID crash and recovery
The NIFTY 50 fell 38.4% from 12,362 on 14 Jan 2020 to 7,610 on 23 Mar 2020, the deepest fall in our data. It regained the previous high on 9 Nov 2020, about 8 months after the low.
For the SIP investor, March 2020 was the moment of greatest temptation to stop. The portfolio was briefly worth less than the money put in, and headlines were frightening. It was also the best time to be buying. We tested what would have happened if the investor had paused instalments from April to December 2020 and resumed in January 2021:
| Choice | Invested | Value on 5 Oct 2026 | XIRR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kept investing through 2020 | ₹9,30,000 | ₹12,61,828 | 7.86% |
| Paused April to December 2020 | ₹8,40,000 | ₹10,68,983 | 6.63% |
Pausing saved ₹90,000 of contributions but left the final value ₹1,92,845 lower, and the XIRR fell by more than a percentage point. The nine skipped instalments would have bought units at some of the lowest prices of the entire period.
Every 3-year SIP in the period
Because one start and end date can mislead, we also measured every possible 36-month SIP: start in February 2019 and value after three years, then start in March 2019, and so on. There are 57 such windows.
| Measure | 3-year SIP XIRR |
|---|---|
| Worst | -3.3% |
| 25th percentile | 11.0% |
| Median | 13.4% |
| 75th percentile | 16.4% |
| Best | 23.7% |
| Windows with a negative return | 1 of 57 |
The typical three-year outcome was strong, with a median of 13.4%, but the range is wide. A three-year horizon is short for equity: the same habit produced anything from -3.3% to 23.7% depending only on timing.
Did instalments made in fearful markets do better?
India VIX measures the market's expected volatility over the next month and rises when investors are anxious. We grouped each instalment (excluding those less than a year old) by the VIX level on its purchase day and measured how each one compounded to the end of the period:
| VIX on the purchase day | Instalments | Average annual growth | Median annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX below 15 | 36 | 1.9% | 4.3% |
| VIX 15-20 | 26 | 6.1% | 7.0% |
| VIX 20-25 | 10 | 7.6% | 8.4% |
| VIX above 25 | 9 | 12.1% | 12.5% |
Instalments made when fear was highest grew the most, while those made in calm markets, many of them in 2024 and 2025 near the market's highs, grew the least. The sample is small and dominated by 2020, so this is not a timing system. But it supports the practical lesson: the instalments that feel most uncomfortable to make are often the most valuable ones.
What this means for your SIP
- Expect a range, not a number. Use a central assumption of 10% to 12% for long-term equity planning, but know that any given 3- to 7-year period can deliver much more or much less.
- Do not judge a SIP at one moment. The same portfolio showed a much higher XIRR at the January 2026 peak than it does today. Short-term XIRR is mostly noise.
- Keep investing through falls. In this period, stopping during the crash was the most costly decision available.
- Match equity to the time horizon. If money is needed within three years, the range of outcomes above is too wide to accept. See our guide to asset allocation.
- Prefer low-cost index funds tracking the total return index, which also captures dividends. See index funds vs active funds.
This study describes what happened in one period. It is not a forecast and not a recommendation to invest in any fund. Future returns may be higher or lower.
Frequently asked questions
Why use the price index and not the total return index?
Our dataset is built from NSE's daily closing values of the NIFTY 50, which is a price index. The NIFTY 50 Total Return Index also includes reinvested dividends, which have added roughly 1% to 1.5% a year. An index fund tracks the total return index, so its SIP would have done somewhat better than the figures here, minus its expense ratio.
Does this mean SIPs return only 8%?
No. It means a SIP measured at a moment when the market is 14% below its peak shows a lower return than one measured at a peak. Over longer periods Indian equities have returned more, but any single measurement depends on the starting and ending points.
What is XIRR?
XIRR is the annual return that makes the value of all your dated investments equal to the final value. It is the right way to measure a SIP, because each instalment was invested for a different length of time.
Is investing more when VIX is high a strategy?
The pattern in our data is consistent with buying when fear is high, but the sample is small (9 instalments with VIX above 25, most in 2020) and depends on one recovery. The safer lesson is not to stop investing when markets are frightening.
Sources and further reading
About the author
Pradeep Rawal is an NISM-certified market professional (Series XV Research Analyst and Series VIII Equity Derivatives) with more than 15 years in personal finance and stock market education. He founded Financial Nirvana, wrote the book From Cubicles to Wealth Creation, teaches money and investing workshops, builds quantitative tools and backtesting systems, and writes about personal finance with the working shown.
This article is for education only and is not investment, tax or legal advice. Tax rules quoted are for the tax year 2026-27 (FY 2026-27) unless stated, and can change; check the latest position with the Income Tax Department or a qualified professional before acting. Examples use assumed returns that are not guaranteed.
